Author : Min Seock Do
[2014] The 8th international conference of Kyung Hee University, pp.200-217.

Abstract

For the last 10 years, studies of the decrease and extinction of amphibians under the influence of climatic change have been conducted around the world. This study used Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modeling of 16 species of amphibians to predict their distribution tendency to be changed with climate change and check its applicability. Using the distribution of amphibians in the data of the 3rd Korean Nationwide Survey on Natural Environments and seven climate variables of the present and future, this study checked their distribution at this point in time and that in the future (2050 and 2070). The range of the average AUC of the 16 species extracted as a result of analysis was 0.555 to 0.991. As compared to the 2014 Projection, it was predicted that the distribution of amphibians in the 2050 Projection and 2070 Projection would decrease, and because of the climate variables of Temp 4 and Prcp 17, it was predicted that the distribution would increase more in the 2070 Projection than 2050 Projection. For three species with high decreasing tendency (Hynobius leechii, Rana rugosa and Bombina oritalis) out of 14 species, it is judged that there was an influence of climate on the adaptability of the distributed species, while it is judged that the increase of two species resulted from not using the habitat variable. In addition, of the seven climate variables that contributed to the change in the distribution of 16 species of amphibians, mostly, temperature-related variables had influences. There had been prediction results that the northeast area might be suitable for most species, while this study did not use various different environmental variables other than climate variables, and it has a short research period and limitation that did not consider various variables such as secondary risk factors, the transition of vegetation, natural disturbances and the adaptation of organisms. Therefore, for the preservation and promotion of amphibians according to climatic change in South Korea, it is necessary to monitor them systematically in the long-term.